The climate dice are becoming more loaded – new evidence on extreme weather events

February 1, 2012

     By Duncan Green     

new paper by J. Hansen, M. Sato and R. Ruedy hot and very hot“The “climate dice” describing the chance of an unusually warm or cool┬áseason, relative to the climatology of 1951-1980, have progressively become more “loaded”┬áduring the past 30 years, coincident with increased global warming. ┬áThe most dramatic and ┬áimportant change of the climate dice is the appearance of a new category of extreme climate ┬áoutliers. ┬áThese extremes were practically absent in the period of climatology, covering much ┬áless than 1% of Earth’s surface. ┬áNow summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three ┬ástandard deviations (¤â) warmer than climatology, typically cover about 10% of the land area. ┬áThus there is no need to equivocate about the summer heat waves in Texas in 2011 and Moscow┬áin 2010, which exceeded 3¤â ÔÇô it is nearly certain that they would not have occurred in the┬áabsence of global warming. ┬áIf global warming is not slowed from its current pace, by midcentury 3¤â events will be the new norm and 5¤â events will be common.” Plus some pretty hard-hitting writing in the body of the paper: “One of the major candidates in the current Presidential primary in the United States has declared that human-made global warming is a hoax, and he has issued an official Proclamation: ” I, Rick Perry, Governor of Texas, under the authority vested in me by the Constitution and Statutes of the State of Texas, do hereby proclaim the three-day period from Friday, April 22, 2011, to Sunday, April 24, 2011, as Days of Prayer for Rain in the State of Texas. I urge Texans of all faiths and traditions to offer prayers on those days for the healing of our land, the rebuilding of our communities and the restoration of our normal way of life.” Science cannot disprove the possibility of divine intervention. However, there is a relevant saying that “Heaven helps those who help themselves.”” [h/t Steve Jennings] ]]>

February 1, 2012
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Duncan Green
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