One of the many baffling aspects of the post-2015/Sustainable Development Goal process is how little research there has been on the impact of their predecessor, the Millennium Development Goals. That may sound odd, given how often we hear āthe MDGs are on/off trackā on poverty, health, education etc, but saying āthe MDG for poverty reduction has been achieved five years ahead of scheduleā is not at all the same as saying āthe MDGs caused that poverty reductionā ā a classic case of confusing correlation with causation.
So I gave heartfelt thanks when Columbia Universityās Elham Seyedsayamdost got in touch after a previous whinge on this topic, and sent me her draft paper for UNDP which, as far as I know, is the first systematic attempt to look at the impact of the MDGs on national government policy. Hereās the abstract, with my commentary in brackets/italics. The full paper is here:Ā MDG Assessment_ES, and Elham would welcome any feedback (es548[at]columbia[dot]edu):
āThis study reviews postā2005 national development strategies of fifty countries from diverse income groups, geographical locations, human development tiers, and ODA (official aid) levels to assess the extent to which national plans have tailored the Millennium Development Goals to their local contexts. Reviewing PRSPs and nonāPRSP national strategies, it presents a mixed picture. [so itās about plans and policies, rather than what actually happened in terms of implementation, but itās still way ahead of anything else Iāve seen]
The encouraging finding is that thirty-two of the development plans under review have either adopted the MDGs as planning and monitoring tools or ālocalizedā them in a meaningful way, using diverse adaptation strategies from changing the target date to setting additional goals, targets and indicators, all the way to integrating MDGs into subnational planning. [OK, so the MDGs have been reflected in national planning documents. That’s a start.]
A high correlation is detected between income group, PRSP status and ODA reliance of countries and their propensity to incorporate the MDGs in their planning instruments. A closer examination of the national plans indicates that PRSP countries are more likely to have aligned their national plans with the MDGs. On the other hand, all the countries that have not aligned their plans with the MDGs belong to the middleāincome countries and are least dependent on ODA. [Not surprising ā the more poor/aid dependent a country is, the more it has to listen to donors banging on about the MDGs.]
The correlation between countriesā human development level and their propensity to adopt or adapt the MDGs is similarly quite strong, as the number of MDGābased national strategies decreases as countriesā HDI increases. The discouraging findings include the dwindling attention national plans pay to the targets pertaining to reproductive health, environment, gender equality beyond education, and maternal health. [Richer countries pay less attention to MDGs, either because they are less aid dependent, or because they find them less relevant – doesn’t bode well for ‘universalism’ in the future]
More disconcerting is the lack of a connection between planning and implementation, as MDG alignment of national strategies is not coterminous with greater proāpoor or MDGāoriented policies. In fact, countries that have not integrated MDGs into their national plans are just as likely to allocate government funds to the social sectors as the MDG aligners.ā [Ouch ā this is the killer para. Whether MDGs are reflected in plans or not, they do not have any apparent influence on how governments spend their money. She measured this by looking mainly at spending on health (the data was not great, but better than for education) before and after the relevant National Development Strategy and found: ‘the probability of a country increasing its health budget in the years after the publication of their national development plan was the same for countries that had aligned their reports with MDGs and those that had not aligned them.’]
If true (and there’s certainly a need for more research on this issue), the last paragraph is important for the SDG process currently under wayĀ ā if a simpler, shorter list of MDGs, backed by huge donor resources cannot be shown to have influenced government spending decisions, what chance has the sprawl of the SDGs (current draft weighing in at 17 goals and 169 targets, see right) got?
I hate to say I told you so. Actually, screw that, I love saying I told you so. The post-2015 circus spent a ridiculous amount of time and energyĀ arguing about which baubles to put on its Christmas Tree. It is only now getting to the interesting and important part – ensuring that whatever is agreed is designed to actually influencing the spending and policy decisions ofĀ developing country governments. At this point,Ā it ought to have been able to draw on the lessons of the MDG experience; unfortunately, propaganda and wishful thinking seem to have squeezed out serious research on what those lessons actually are.Ā Elham’s paper is at least a start in redressing that.
Oof. I feel better for that.
Please send comments to Elham. And hereās her bio in case you want to give her a job. āElham Seyedsayamdost is a researcher and development professional specializing in the political economy of development. She was recently awarded a PhD in Political Science at Columbia University, where she was a Cordier Fellow at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). Her PhD dissertation, titled āA World Without Poverty: Negotiating the Global Development Agenda,ā examines the political processes, interests and preferences of international actors in creating the Millennium Development Goals. Previously, she worked for many years on development policy with UNDP and the World Bank. To learn more, visit http://elham.se.ā